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With climate change come several dramatic shifts in species
distribution within the United States. The
U.S. Geological Survey in concert with the University of New Mexico and
Northern Arizona University have recently projected distribution losses for nearly
half of the 5 examined reptile species including the locally famed
chuckwalla. Breeding bird ranges,
however exhibited broader expansions and contractions within their breeding
habitats.
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For example, black-throated sparrows and gray
vireos are projected to experience major gains in breeding habitat, but pygmy
nuthatches, sage thrashers and Williamson sapsuckers are forecasted to
experience large losses in breeding habitat, in some cases by as much as 80 percent.
Thus, the latter three species may experience population declines. With the
decline in the pinyon pine habitat, the pinyon jay will likely experience
between one fourth and one third loss of its breeding territory.
“Not surprisingly, whether a species is projected
to be a winner or a loser depends primarily on its natural history and habitat
needs and requirements,” said USGS scientist Charles van Riper III, the lead
author on the study. “Land managers should be aware of these potential changes
so that they can adjust their management practices accordingly.”
The study was conducted by layering existing
global climate change models with newer species distribution models to estimate
losses and gains of seven southwestern upland bird species and 5 reptile
species focusing on the Sonoran Desert and the Colorado Plateau.
Temperatures in this region are projected to
increase 6.3-7.2 F (3.5—4°C) within the next 60—90 years while precipitation is
projected to decline by 5—20 percent.
“Changes of this magnitude may have profound
effects on distribution and viability of many species,” noted Stephen T.
Jackson, director of the Interior Department’s Southwest Climate Science
Center. “Temperature matters a lot, biologically, in arid and semi-arid
regions.”
The information has been documented and published
in a series of range maps now available through the USGS. These predictive
maps will help decision makers prioritize conservation efforts.
“Wildlife resource managers need regionally
specific information about climate change consequences so they better identify
tools and strategies to conserve and sustain habitats in their region,” said
Doug Beard, director of the USGS National Climate Change and Wildlife Science
Center that supported the project. “Managers can use these results to help plan
for ways to offset projected effects of climate change on these species.”
Read more at The
USGS.
Pinyon
Jay image via Shutterstock.
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