New research published Monday (Sept. 19) in the journal Nature Climate Change by researchers at Aarhus University in Denmark and the University of Wisconsin-Madison illuminates where and why novel species combinations are likely to emerge due to recent changes in temperature and precipitation. The study includes global maps of novelty that offer testable predictions and carry important implications for conservation and land management planning.
For instance, the findings suggest that novel species associations are likely to form in the North American Great Plains and temperate forests, the Amazon, South American grasslands, Africa and boreal Asia due to recent climate change, and will likely expand as climate novelty increases.
With global temperatures expected to increase by 2.5-8 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of this century — compared to the roughly 1.5 degrees of global warming experienced over the last century — the authors predict the widespread reshuffling of species into new communities, as species abundances and distributions change.
“We’re identifying three distinct ways that climate change can lead to community reshuffling,” says study co-author John “Jack” Williams, a UW-Madison professor of geography.
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Image Credits: Molly Fifield Murray / UW-Madison Arboretum
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